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A continuing tight labour market forecast

There is a 2% shortage in the supply of officers this year to cape with
the higher demand. However, there is a fine balance between the demand
and supply ratio for ratings, a comprehensive seafarer study has found.

The worldwide supply of seafarers in 2010 is estimated to be 624,000 officers and 747,000 ratings, while the current worldwide demand for seafarers is 637,000 officers and 747,000 ratings, said the BIMCO and the International Shipping Federation (ISF) joint study of the worldwide supply and demand for seafarers.

However, in some specialist cases,including tankers, the gap was wider.

The chairman of the project's steering committee, Douglas Lang of Anglo Eastern, explained: "Our results suggest a situation of approximate balance between demand and supply for ratings, with a modest overall shortage of officers of about 2%. This does not, of course, mean that individual shipping companies are not experiencing serious recruitment problems, but simply that overall supply and demand are currently more or less in balance. This is perhaps not surprising given the sharp contraction in the demand for sea transport in 2009 combined with significant growth in total seafarer numbers."

With regard to certain nationalities, there is an underlying concern about the current and future availability of senior officers. But while there is some evidence of continuing recruitment and retention problems, these are not as severe as envisaged by the last update produced by BIMCO and ISF in 2005. Encouragingly, the data suggests a notable improvement in supply side numbers over the past five years, notably in China, India and the Philippines, but also in several OECD countries, the study found.

The 2010 update also presented various global supply/demand balance scenarios for the next decade. The 'benchmark' scenario represents BIMCO and ISF's view of the most likely trends, based on recent developments and the opinions of key players taken from various surveys conducted for the study.

The `benchmark' assumes a modest increase in the number of vessels in the world's Heet of 2.3% per annum, which is very similar to the average growth rates during the past decade. Manning levels are assumed to decline slightly on average and backup ratios are cautiously assumed stable.

On the supply side, it is assumed that recruitment rates will continue at roughly the same level as during the previous decade, but wastage rates (net loss rates from the industry) will be higher by about 1% per annum.

Despite the conservative assumptions, the current moderate officer shortage is expected to persist, unless training is further increased and/ or measures are taken to reduce wastage rates. If general economic conditions continue to improve — as indicated in the 'hot' scenario —there could be quite severe problems. This forecast is also sensitive to various other factors, which are explored more fully in the pages of the report.

Lang said: "There are many uncertainties, but our results indicate that the industry will most probably face a tightening labour market, with recurrent shortages for officers, particularly as shipping markets recover. Unless measures are taken to ensure a continued rapid growth in qualified seafarer numbers, especially for officers and/or to reduce wastage from the industry, existing shortages are likely to intensify over the next decade.

"Supply appears likely to increase in many countries, but the positive trend that has been established for training and recruitment over the past few years must continue to be maintained to ensure a suitable future pool of qualified seafarers," he stressed.

The 2010 Update is based on data collected from questionnaires sent to governments, shipping companies and crewing experts. It also incorporates the views and perceptions of senior executives in shipping companies and maritime administrations and detailed statistica) analysis provided by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research.

Importantly, for the first time, the study has been assisted by Dalian Maritime University, which has helped obtain input from Asian countries where it had previously been difficult to obtain definitive data.

The authors said that it was important to stress that the industry needs well qualified and high calibre seafarers capable of adapting to change and handling the wide variety of tasks now demanded of them. Any training programme provided must ensure that quality is not compromised in the drive for increasing quantity.

The full report on the BIMCO/ISF 2010 Update on the Worldwide Demand Supply of and Demand for Seafarers is available this month from BIMCO and ISF for €140, or £125.


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